The surge in digitalization has set the stage for a dynamic and rapidly expanding server marketWith an increasing reliance on data processing and storage technologies, this market has become a battleground for major companies vying for dominanceAs organizations of all sizes continue to shift toward cloud computing and advanced data analytics, the demand for robust, efficient server capabilities is at an all-time high.
The Server Market on the Rise
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has unleashed an unprecedented demand for serversAccording to TechInsights, the global server market is projected to soar to a staggering $273 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18%. For context, in 2022, the market was estimated at $121.58 billion, a significant figure that highlights the trajectory of growth in the coming years.
When focusing on AI applications, the predictions are even more striking
AI-specific servers are anticipated to capture 59% of the market share by 2028, accompanied by an extraordinary CAGR of 49%. This boom is especially evident in China, which is on course to become the world's primary growth area for servers.
China's server market achieved a valuation of $25.09 billion in 2021, climbing to $27.34 billion in 2022. The "2022–2023 Global Computing Power Index Assessment Report," co-published by IDC, Inspur, and Tsinghua University, emphasizes that China held a 25% share of the global server market, accompanied by a remarkable CAGR of 48.8% from 2017 to 2022. Furthermore, IDC forecasted that AI server revenues in China would reach $9.1 billion in 2023, marking an 82.5% year-on-year growth.
As this market continues to flourish, the Central Processing Unit (CPU) has taken center stageAs the primary component at the heart of these systems, the performance and energy efficiency of CPUs are crucial determinants of the overall performance of servers, securing their position as focal points in ongoing market discussions.
The Battle for CPU Architecture
Unlike Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), which excel at executing high volumes of parallel tasks, CPUs serve as the general-purpose workhorses of computing
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If one visualizes the CPU as a versatile manager directing operational flow, the GPU can be seen as an efficient executor of specific tasks.
In the current landscape, the CPU industry is primarily dominated by three ecosystems:
- The Wintel ecosystem, characterized by the x86 instruction set framework and Windows operating systems, primarily caters to traditional server and desktop needsWithin this ecosystem, CPU manufacturers produce chips, while operating system vendors provide the requisite software platforms.
- The AA ecosystem, employing the ARM architecture and Android operating systems, is predominantly utilized for low-power and energy-efficient applications, such as cloud and edge computing devicesARM architecture is gaining traction within numerous markets, particularly among alternative server manufacturers.
- The RISC-V architecture, an emerging player, offers a novel and open-source approach, enabling developers to customize instruction sets based on specific requirements
This adaptability is propelling RISC-V into the limelight as a promising option for tailored server chip design.
Despite the overwhelming presence of x86 architecture, which commands more than 90% of the server CPU market share, competition remains fierce as newer entrants, particularly ARM, make significant strides in this domainIn the first quarter of 2023, ARM server shipments reportedly comprised 7% of the global market, translating to an estimated 231,350 units, of which around 40% were shipped to ChinaOn the broader spectrum, total server shipments in China reached 897,000 units, with ARM constituting roughly 10.32% of this figure.
As competitors eye this lucrative sector, ARM companies such as Huawei and Phytium continue to expand their horizonsHuawei's Kunpeng processors were introduced in stages, with the most advanced models, like Kunpeng 920, providing remarkable performance through a 7nm manufacturing process and optimized micro-architecture
These advancements allow them to compete effectively in the cloud computing, data analytics, and artificial intelligence training landscapes.
The Competitive Landscape in CPU Chips
Turning to the x86 architecture, the leading players include Intel, AMD, and several Chinese firms such as Haiguang and ZhaoxinOver recent years, AMD has made impressive gains, achieving higher market share across various sectors that previously belonged largely to IntelAccording to Mercury Research, AMD's server market share rose to 23.6% in early 2024, up from a mere 8.9% in the first quarter of 2021.
Though Intel firmly maintains its position as the dominant entity in the x86 server CPU market, it faces persistent challenges from AMD’s innovative approachesHaiguang is steadily developing server chips tailored for complex calculations and multitasking, aligning its architecture with international x86 standards.
Zhaoxin, another rising contender, showcases a diverse lineup under its Kaisheng series, producing powerful server processors that support sophisticated cloud computing and high-performance storage applications
Their recent models reflect notable advancements, integrating cutting-edge features and addressing specific needs in data-driven environments.
As ARM architecture gains traction, players like Huawei, with its Kunpeng line, and emerging competitors such as Phytium, are making substantial inroads by emphasizing high-performance, energy-efficient solutionsThe rising prominence of ARM-based processors is exemplified by their integration into government procurement projects, where their share of the total server procurement volume is steadily increasing.
The Rise of RISC-V
In recent years, RISC-V architecture has garnered significant attention as it presents a compelling alternative to entrenched systemsIts flexibility, openness, and modularity have inspired a wave of innovation across various sectorsChinese companies, among others, are exploring RISC-V for specific applications
Consequently, this architecture is set to evolve significantly as companies explore its capabilities for specialized workloads.
With numerous companies embracing the RISC-V approach, significant developments are underway, including notable initiatives led by institutions such as Alibaba and other tech startupsFor instance, Alibaba's Damowang Institute released the XuanTie C910 RISC-V processor core targeting high-performance markets.
While the RISC-V architecture attracts eager entrepreneurs and developers, it also faces a myriad of challengesCompanies must overcome technological hurdles, market positioning, and ecosystem development in order to thrive in an increasingly contested environmentThe recent rise of companies such as Loongson and Shenwei in the Chinese market exemplifies the domestic push for independent innovation, demonstrating the strive towards self-reliance and technological sovereignty in chip development.
A Window of Opportunity for Domestic CPUs
Investment analysts highlight that the upcoming three years may herald a critical opportunity for domestic computing chips to mature further